Fragile ceasefire on the nuclear edge
A ceasefire has been declared by nuclear rivals India and Pakistan after a deadly flare-up that lasted several days — yet unresolved tensions keep the region on edge
NEWS ANALYSIS
May 11, 2025
THE guns have fallen silent along the Line of Control and the International Border between Pakistan and India. However, beneath the surface of South Asia’s newest ceasefire agreement, tensions still smoulder.
Just hours after Indian and Pakistani officials declared a “full and immediate” ceasefire on 10th May, accusations of violations began flying across the dividing line. India reported “fresh explosions” in Occupied Kashmir, pointing fingers at Pakistan. Islamabad denied the allegations, insisting it remained committed to the agreement.
As it turns out, the uneasy calm has done little to dissolve the deeper distrust between the two sides — a result of decades of hostility. (The roots of the conflict lie in 1947, when British India was partitioned and the Hindu ruler of Jammu and Kashmir acceded to the newly established country of India, reportedly on the promise that a plebiscite would be held later. The promised referendum has yet to be conducted across the Muslim-majority region.)
Arguably the most telling indicator of the current volatility in relations between Pakistan and India is Narendra Modi’s suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty — a lifeline for millions of Pakistanis. India cited a deadly terrorist attack in Occupied Kashmir as justification, though many analysts suggest deeper strategic motives behind the decision. Delhi has made no move to restore normal water flows, signalling that this truce is more a tactical pause than a diplomatic breakthrough.
Troop buildups persist near flashpoints, and while people in the two countries and the world at large, breathe a sigh of relief diplomats know all too well how fragile this détente truly is. Both sides remain heavily armed, with fingers uncomfortably close to the trigger. As history has shown, one spark — intentional or not — could reignite conflict between these two nuclear neighbours.
From the brink to the bargaining table
Ostensibly, in response to the deadly militant assault in the Pahalgam area, India unleashed a wave of missile strikes targeting sites in Pakistan and Azad Kashmir that left dozens of people dead. Islamabad responded swiftly with Operation Bunyan ul Marsoos, targeting Indian military installations with a precision not seen since the skirmishes of 2019. The world watched in fear as two nuclear-armed nations inched dangerously close to all-out war.
Amid mounting civilian and military casualties, the downing of fighter jets, air raid sirens, and unprecedented economic panic, backchannel diplomacy was activated. But what turned the tide wasn’t only international pressure — it was also a strategic Indian overture to the United States, requesting urgent mediation, according to analysts from CNN and Dawn.
Enter President Donald Trump. In one of the most consequential diplomatic moves of his presidency, Trump announced that India and Pakistan had “agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire”. Behind the scenes, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance engaged in shuttle diplomacy, speaking to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
To be sure, it wasn’t just American power that helped avert catastrophe. China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom quietly coordinated pressure campaigns on both Delhi and Islamabad, warning of economic repercussions if escalation continued.
Where does it go from here
This ceasefire — however welcome — is no peace treaty. The strategic calculus of both nations remains unchanged. India continues to regard the entire Jammu and Kashmir region as its integral part, the promised and long-delayed plebiscite notwithstanding. Pakistan, for its part, maintains its advocacy for Kashmiri autonomy and accuses India of settler colonialism in the disputed territory.
Yet, despite the mistrust and political posturing, the guns are — for now — largely silent. And in a region where silence along the border is both rare and precious, even a fragile ceasefire is worth protecting.
The world will watch closely in the coming days. But as history has shown, peace in South Asia demands more than ceasefires. It requires courage, compromise, and a shared vision for a future not defined by war.