How common Pakistanis have pulled off a solar revolution

Power to the people as the revolution bypasses the state

STATE OF THE NATION

May 3, 2025

WITH a population exceeding 240 million, Pakistan is undergoing a dramatic solar transformation despite widespread economic hardship and poverty. Fuelled by an influx of low-cost Chinese solar panels, the country imported in 2024 material capable of producing 15-17 gigawatts — more than twice the previous year — making it the third-largest solar importer globally, according to data from the climate think tank Ember.

Much of this story — as reported by CNN — highlights a remarkable shift in how the solar option is being adopted across Pakistan. Unlike other countries where governments spearhead green initiatives, Pakistan’s solar boom is almost entirely people-powered, with limited input from the state. “This is not a top-down policy shift,” said Mustafa Amjad, programme director at Renewables First in Islamabad. “This is a grassroots revolution.”

Instead of large-scale solar farms, individual households and businesses are installing rooftop systems at an unprecedented pace. “Pakistanis are choosing solar because it makes financial sense,” said Harjeet Singh, director of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation. It’s a rare case in the Global South where renewable energy is thriving without heavy subsidies or government mandates.

The change is also being driven by Pakistan’s worsening climate crisis. With heatwaves pushing temperatures to 50°C (122°F) in April, solar power is increasingly viewed as a lifeline — allowing families to afford cooling solutions essential for survival.

At the heart of this shift are two key factors: plummeting solar panel prices and soaring electricity costs. Pakistan’s energy woes date back to the 1990s when the country signed expensive power purchase agreements, often pegged to the US dollar. These contracts require payments to producers regardless of output, placing a heavy financial burden on the state.

With the Pakistani rupee sharply devalued and electricity demand falling — partly due to rising solar use — power prices have skyrocketed. The cost of electricity has increased by 155 per cent in just three years, said Amjad. On top of that, chronic blackouts lasting several hours a day are common.

Those who can afford it are turning to solar. While exact figures are elusive, analysts estimate around 15 gigawatts of solar capacity was installed in 2024. For context, Pakistan’s peak electricity demand is about 30 gigawatts. “It’s mind-boggling,” said Dave Jones, global insights director at Ember.

Satellite imagery tells the same story. In cities like Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad, rooftops are now carpeted with panels. “You see more rooftop solar here than in many developed countries,” said Jenny Chase, an analyst at BloombergNEF.

While a government official from the Power Division credited state policies for the surge — such as zero tax on solar panels and a net metering system — analysts disagree. The data shows minimal government investment in solar infrastructure. “The public created this market,” said Amjad. “It’s the people who pushed for more imports.”

This shift is transforming consumer behaviour. “Just like social media allowed people to become publishers, solar is turning citizens into electricity producers,” said Moosa, from the Pakistan Solar Association. Once solar is paired with batteries, he explained, power moves into the hands of the people.

Challenges ahead

However, the boom comes with challenges. Experts warn that if more people abandon the national grid, it could fall into a ‘death spiral’. As wealthier users switch to solar, grid utilities lose revenue. The remaining users, often poorer, then face even higher prices, pushing more towards solar —and further weakening the grid.

The Power Division acknowledges these risks and says it may take steps to stabilise the system, though it hasn’t detailed what those might be.

For now, the solar wave benefits only those who can afford the switch. “It’s deepening the energy divide,” said Asha Amirali, a researcher at the University of Bath.

“Those left behind are stuck with expensive, unreliable fossil power. Pakistan may be an example of how not to do an energy transition.”