Peace for now, but perils persist: the quiet alarm in Gen Mirza’s words

Pakistan’s four-star general has offered reassurances about troop drawdowns, but his warning about possible miscalculations underlines the fragile nature of strategic balance in South Asia

SITUATIONER

May 31, 2025

GEN Sahir Shamshad Mirza’s remarks during a recent interview present a dual narrative — one of cautious optimism tempered by strategic sobriety. His confirmation that both Pakistan and India have begun drawing down troops points toward a welcome easing of tensions. Most notably, he reassured that “there was no move towards nuclear weapons during this conflict”, a relief in a region where the nuclear threshold is always under quiet scrutiny.

This drawdown signals not just a pause in hostilities but also a potential diplomatic window. In an atmosphere often charged with rhetoric and brinkmanship, such practical steps matter. They offer a reprieve from escalation and suggest that both nations are at least partially responsive to international and regional pressure for restraint.

However, Gen Mirza did not allow this calm to breed complacency. His clear-eyed warning “you can’t rule out any strategic miscalculation at any time, because when the crisis is on, the responses are different” — draws attention to the latent dangers still embedded in the region’s strategic environment. This is not just a military observation, but a political reality: in high-stakes crises, rational behaviour can give way to reactive impulses.

This concern is echoed by Christopher Clary in his recent report for the Stimson Centre in the US. Clary notes, “Both countries may take comfort from how the most recent crisis ended — without a war — and fail to recognise how close they came to the brink.” His conclusion reinforces Gen Mirza’s message: while recent restraint is commendable, it should not mask the structural risks that persist.

The very fact that nuclear weapons were not brought into play this time might fuel a dangerous overconfidence in future confrontations. In sum, Gen Mirza’s comments are not just a commentary on the past but a caution for the future. His words — coupled with expert analysis like Clary’s — highlight the urgent need for sustained engagement, confidence-building measures, and crisis management frameworks.

South Asia may have avoided catastrophe this time, but the region’s volatile equilibrium remains deeply precarious.