Evidence lends credibility to Pak claims of downing Indian jets

If confirmed, the episode will represent one of the most significant setbacks for the Indian Air Force in recent memory

NEWS ANALYSIS 

May 8, 2025

ALTHOUGH Indian leaders have been trying to give a lie to Islamabad’s claims of downing five Indian aircraft during New Delhi’s military operations in the early hours of Wednesday, pieces of evidence are emerging slowly but surely that give credence to the claims made by Pakistani authorities.

On May 7, amid heightened tensions between India and Pakistan over a deadly assault on tourists in Occupied Kashmir, Indian missiles hit targets deep inside Pakistani territory, reportedly targeting what New Delhi described as militant infrastructure. Hours later, Pakistan announced it had shot down five Indian aerial assets — including three Rafale fighter jets.  

While India has so far remained officially silent about any aircraft losses, new evidence surfacing from independent observers, defence analysts, and international media outlets appears to corroborate elements of Pakistan’s narrative.

Visual confirmation

One of the most compelling pieces of evidence came in the form of high-resolution photographs that surfaced on multiple open-source intelligence platforms and were verified by defence publication The Aviationist. The images show the unmistakable vertical stabiliser of a Dassault Rafale EH, clearly bearing the Indian Air Force serial number BS 001. This number matches the aircraft designated as India’s first single-seat Rafale, inducted with great fanfare in 2020.  

The presence of charred fuselage components, parts of the Snecma M88 turbofan engine, and a MICA air-to-air missile casing further support the identification. Defence experts noted that the damage patterns indicate the aircraft was likely struck by a radar-guided surface-to-air missile while flying at medium altitude.

A French military intelligence officer, speaking to CNN on condition of anonymity, confirmed the loss of an Indian Rafale “based on credible technical indicators and imagery analysis”.  

Crash site footage

Video footage aired on local Pakistani channels and later analyzed by The New York Times shows burning wreckage scattered across a rural field in Pakistan’s Sialkot district. Among the remains, analysts identified fragments consistent with an Israeli-made Heron drone’s composite airframe and electro-optical surveillance pods.

Debris from a second crash site, believed to be from a Su-30MKI, includes parts of a twin-engine housing typical of the Russian-origin fighter jet. While less conclusive due to damage and charring, the configuration closely matches the Sukhoi platform.

Lack of denial from India

Perhaps just as telling as the visual evidence is India’s reluctance to engage directly with Pakistan’s claims. New Delhi has continued to highlight the "precision and success" of its cross-border strikes, but has not issued a forceful or emphatic denial regarding the alleged downing of its aircraft.

Traditionally, the Indian Air Force has been quick to refute exaggerated enemy claims, as seen in the aftermath of the 2019 Balakot strikes. The current silence has led to growing speculation that the losses may indeed be genuine but are being withheld from public acknowledgment pending internal reviews or for strategic reasons.

Regional and global reactions

The developments have drawn sharp international focus. The US and Chinese diplomatic channels are reportedly engaged in quiet back-channel discussions with both countries, urging de-escalation. The United Nations has called for “full transparency” from both sides to prevent misinformation from inflaming tensions further.

For Pakistan, the successful targeting of advanced Indian jets, especially the high-value Rafale, marks a symbolic victory in both military and psychological terms. Defence analysts in Islamabad described it as a “demonstration of credible deterrence” in the face of Indian assertiveness.

Conclusion

While a full and independently verified account of the May 7 air engagements is still emerging, the available evidence — visual, technical, and diplomatic — increasingly supports Pakistan’s claims of having downed multiple Indian aerial assets. If officially confirmed, the episode would represent one of the most significant setbacks for the Indian Air Force in recent memory and may alter strategic calculations on both sides of the border.