Strategic deterrence at stake as clashes escalate beyond Kargil scale

The conflict has entered a dangerous phase, with strategic restraint appearing increasingly tenuous on both sides of the divide

NEWS ANALYSIS

May 9, 2025

THE current confrontation with India has surpassed the scale and significance of the Kargil conflict due to the strategic nature of the strategic issues involved, the large number of people directly affected by it, and the vast geographical area under threat. For these reasons, it is vital that the Pakistani armed forces act with discipline and resolve throughout the crisis.

A further reason for a strong and effective military response lies in the unfortunate precedent of past engagements, where Pakistan failed to secure decisive outcomes. Should Islamabad appear to falter once more, there is a genuine risk that India may feel emboldened to act with increasing aggression and frequency in the future.

Such a development would echo the troubling era of General Pervez Musharraf’s rule, when American and Afghan drones frequently crossed into the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas, conducting deadly strikes with no or little consequence.

The military high command is acutely aware that this conflict must conclude with the re-establishment of credible strategic deterrence. The hostilities between two nuclear-armed neighbours must convey a clear message: that India will face significant consequences should it initiate such actions again.

The Pakistani armed forces thus face a considerable challenge. On 9th May, however, a worrying setback occurred when dozens of Indian-operated, Israeli-manufactured drones penetrated deep into Pakistani territory before being brought down.

This development is concerning, as unmanned aerial vehicles are typically intercepted near the international borders. The fact that some reached as far as Karachi raises serious questions about the efficacy and efficiency of Pakistan’s air defence systems.

Meanwhile, the loss of five high-value French-origin fighter jets appears to have forced India to revise its initial strategy and instead prolong the conflict. Indian forces had likely intended a short, targeted campaign involving missile strikes on approximately ten locations within Pakistan, which they claimed were militant training camps. They may have calculated that such a move would avoid triggering a sustained Pakistani retaliation.

But by the morning of 9th May, Indian military operations inside Pakistani territory had intensified in both scope and severity. Remember, in the early stages of the conflict India had primarily used missiles to hit targets in Pakistan and Azad Kashmir, but then it increased the use of drones. Although Pakistani forces intercepted and destroyed many of these unmanned systems, it is deeply troubling that several managed to infiltrate Pakistani airspace as far as Karachi.

Meanwhile, no large-scale ground incursions have been confirmed. Indian media circulated unverified reports of surgical strikes and high-value militant casualties, though these claims lacked independent corroboration.

Overall, the conflict has entered a dangerous phase of escalation, with strategic restraint appearing increasingly tenuous on both sides of the divide.