What form could an Indian attack take?
Revisiting a history of confrontation between nuclear-armed neighbours
SITUATIONER
May 1, 2025
THE subcontinent stands on edge, again. People in both Pakistan and India are growing increasingly anxious for two primary reasons.
First, Pakistan’s information minister held a hastily convened press conference on Tuesday night, warning that an Indian attack on targets inside Pakistan could be imminent. He claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had authorised military commanders across India’s army, air force, and navy to strike selected Pakistani assets. Second, Modi chaired a series of high-level security meetings on Wednesday, including one with the Indian Army chief — fuelling further speculation.
In short, there are strong indications that India may soon hit targets in Pakistani territory, presenting the strikes as retaliation for a militant attack in Occupied Kashmir last week that killed 26 tourists. Yet, New Delhi has not produced any evidence linking Islamabad to the incident.
To understand what form such an operation might take, it is worth recalling the covert raids, limited conflicts, and full-scale wars that have punctuated the turbulent relationship between the two neighbours.
Covert military operations
By their very nature, covert operations are neither announced nor acknowledged. Over the decades, both India and Pakistan have reportedly conducted cross-border raids, targeting military outposts and inflicting casualties.
Such missions are typically retaliatory, carried out by units whose soldiers were previously attacked. However, these actions are rarely, if ever, publicly confirmed. At present, Prime Minister Modi appears disinclined to authorise such a limited, deniable manoeuvre.
The 2016 ‘surgical strikes’
In 2016, India claimed to have carried out 'surgical strikes' against what it described as terrorist launch pads across the Line of Control (LoC), in retaliation for the killing of 17 Indian soldiers at an army base in Uri, in Indian-administered Kashmir.
According to Delhi, Indian troops crossed the de facto border to destroy these launch pads and prevent further infiltrations. Lt Gen Ranbir Singh, then Director General of Military Operations, stated: “The operations were focused on ensuring these terrorists do not succeed in their design of infiltration, destruction, and endangering the lives of citizens in our country.”
Pakistan, however, strongly denied that any such operation had occurred. The military described the incident as routine cross-border firing — a frequent occurrence along the LoC — and dismissed India's claim as a fabrication meant to stir media frenzy. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) confirmed that two Pakistani soldiers were killed and nine others wounded by Indian fire but insisted there was no evidence of a targeted operation. To counter India’s narrative, Islamabad invited foreign journalists to visit the alleged strike sites. These visits revealed no visible damage or signs of military action.
Independent analysts also raised doubts about India’s version of events. Some argued that the described operation bore more resemblance to a cross-border raid than a surgical strike, citing the absence of air support and limited depth of the incursion.
Aerial strikes of 2019
In 2019, following a deadly suicide bombing targeting Indian paramilitary personnel in Occupied Kashmir — just weeks before India’s general elections — the Indian Air Force launched a so-called ‘air raid’ into Azad Kashmir. Delhi claimed to have bombed terrorist training camps and killed dozens of fighters.
Pakistan refuted these claims, asserting that Indian aircraft had struck an uninhabited, forested area. Islamabad stated that its air force had responded promptly, forcing the Indian jets to retreat.
The next day, Indian and Pakistani fighter jets engaged in an aerial dogfight. This culminated in the downing of an Indian aircraft within Pakistani territory. The captured Indian pilot was returned to India a few days later, an act that Pakistan portrayed as a gesture of peace.
Territorial gains
In 1984, the Indian Army and Air Force launched Operation Meghdoot, seizing control of the Siachen Glacier in the Himalayas — thereby preventing Pakistani forces from accessing vital passes. One of the largest non-polar glaciers in the world, Siachen has since become the highest active battleground on the planet, with both nations maintaining military posts in extremely harsh conditions.
Full-scale wars
Since gaining independence in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought four wars — three of them over Kashmir. The disputed territory remains a deeply contested and emotionally charged flashpoint, frequently pushing the nuclear-armed neighbours to the brink of conflict.