Pakistan-India tensions shift to military brinkmanship

Water to warfare: South Asia’s nuclear rivals on high alert

NEWS ANALYSIS

April 30, 2025

TENSIONS between India and Pakistan have remained high ever since New Delhi claimed last week that terrorists backed by Pakistan were responsible for the killing of 26 tourists in Occupied Kashmir. In response — but without providing any proof of Pakistani involvement — India imposed a number of punitive measures, the foremost being its unilateral decision to place the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance.

In the immediate aftermath of the militant attack, most analysts and commentators focused on the implications of suspending that treaty, which has withstood at least three wars. However, attention has since shifted away from the water dispute, with the spotlight now on the military front.

This shift is primarily due to a late-night press conference held by a Pakistani minister on Tuesday, where he announced that an Indian military strike appeared imminent. He went so far as to claim that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had authorised his commanders across all sectors of the army, navy, and air force to select Pakistani targets and take action as deemed necessary. As a result, the focus has moved from diplomatic tensions over water to a potential military confrontation between the two nations.

Here is a comparative overview of the defence forces and arsenals of the nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours, based on data from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, as reported by Reuters.

PERSONNEL
India has 1.4 million active personnel in its armed forces: 1,237,000 in the army, 75,500 in the navy, 149,900 in the air force, and 13,350 in the coastguard.
Pakistan’s strength is lower, with fewer than 700,000 personnel—comprising 560,000 in the army, 70,000 in the air force, and 30,000 in the navy.

GROUND FORCES
India possesses 9,743 artillery pieces compared to Pakistan’s 4,619, and 3,740 main battle tanks against Pakistan’s 2,537.

AIR FORCE
India operates 730 combat-capable aircraft, while Pakistan maintains a fleet of 452. However, Pakistan’s air force is generally regarded as more effective overall.

NAVY
India’s navy comprises 16 submarines, 11 destroyers, 16 frigates, and two aircraft carriers. Pakistan’s naval force includes eight submarines and 10 frigates.

NUCLEAR ARSENALS
India is estimated to possess 172 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan has approximately 170.